Analysis of novel coronavirus pneumonia's impact on paper industry from a global perspective
The novel coronavirus has been raging for a long time, causing millions of people to be locked in the city. Novel coronavirus is the main focus of the world, but the chain reaction is very common in China's industries.
The virus caused low industrial consumption and low production return to work has caused certain harm to China's economy. The tertiary industry (the sector of the economy that provides services to consumers) was the first to bear the brunt of the early economic impact, as most residents could only stay at home and avoid public gatherings.
It is estimated that during the week-long lunar New Year holiday (January 25-30), China has lost $150 billion in restaurants, tourism, retail and catering services (foreign statistics). This is equivalent to 4.6% of China's economy in the first quarter of 2019.
According to both the Economist Intelligence Unit and the S & P global rating, due to the impact of the virus, China's real GDP growth in 2020 may be reduced by 1%.
The global situation is similar to the SARS outbreak in 2002, which killed nearly 800 people in 17 countries. In the first quarter of 2003, SARS reduced China's economic growth by a full two percentage points (11.1% to 9.1%), and caused global economic losses. Nearly $40 billion, according to the National Academy of Sciences. Although coronavirus (about 2% of the death rate) is far lower than SARS (9.6% of the death rate) on a global scale, China is much more important to the global economy today than it was 17 years ago.
Citing Oxford economics, the New York Times reported that China's share of Global trade more than doubled, from 5.3% in 2003 to 12.8% last year. According to the world bank, China's annual economic output has grown faster in the past 17 years, from $1.7 trillion to nearly $14 trillion.
Impact on the market structure of paper industry at home and abroad
As a traditional paper industry, China's paper mills have responded quickly to provide various other supports to Wuhan, which has a population of 11 million. Some enterprises provide funds, disinfection equipment and medical surgical masks to alleviate the shortage of medical materials
According to Fisher analysis, if China's paper industry is shut down for 10-21 days, the output of paper and packaging products may be reduced by 4.7 million tons in 2020, equivalent to 4% of China's estimated output of paper and packaging products.
At present, China's total output of paper products accounts for more than a quarter of the world's total, which will seriously affect the market structure of the paper industry at home and abroad.
However, the outbreak of coronavirus may promote online consumption in the short term, because people will try to reduce the contact with the public, which will benefit the packaging industry in China.
The impact on other countries, any decline in China's papermaking output, will lead to serious dependence on the export of raw materials for papermaking to China's export countries will be affected jointly and severally (such as the United States, Japan, Brazil, etc.).
During this period, China's paper production capacity gap will also create opportunities for countries directly selling finished paper to China.
Source: paper ring